Thursday, May 29, 2008

Rising Prices-blame it to the Hawk,theTiger and the Dragon

Every Friday as Indians prepare for their weekends,something happens at around 12pm.The government comes out with inflation number.Last week it was 7.82 %,a marginal decline from 7.83% the previous week.Economist all over the globe signaled danger as many believed that it would be revised to 9.5% as many items were not taken into account.But for a average Indian it is this just a number.For those IT engineers who spent their election holidays enjoying in PVR cinema instead of standing in queues to cast their votes(pardon me for being cynical),I believe for them its just a number.
To get you how this number affects you,let me first give you an scenario where inflation is at 7%.
This 7% means that what you brought last year at 100 bucks will cost you 107 bucks this year.In short your will lose 7% value on your money.But many of us invests in stocks,mutual funds,FDs and various other schemes to grow our money.We want our money to work harder than us,to grow faster than us and support us when we require it.But now at 7% inflation what we getting out of our investments.The saving account gives us 2.5% return,a FD today gives us 9-10% return and a avg. return of sensex over the past years has been 15-17%.And one more thing except Sensex everything else gave you a simple interest.Also as I was talking about inflation at 7%,the return of your money from a saving account is -4.5%,FD is 2% and from sensex its 10%.In three years time,we could lose all our investments,our parents future(retirement) could become painful and we could also lose our jobs.
But hey,why is there is so much of a fuss over inflation this time around.India has seen inflation of over 15% for two decades.Anything under 10% should be good.My answer to that thought is India has changed and the world has gone Flat.Todays inflation is not triggered because there was a weak monsoon and the crop production went down.It is also not due to the fact that the the imports have been delayed and there is shortage of goods.Its because we don't care about rising food prices.The privileged class is ready to roll out Rs.395 for a bucket full of chicken at KFC,so how can you expect them to raise their voices when petrol becomes 3 rupees dearer or when onion sells Rs.25 to a kilo.For them its still cheaper than the parking fee that their car has to pay for a show at PVRs.But I m in no way asking these people to stop or change their lifestyle,they are the backbone of the Indian economy.They spend,they enjoy but they also create jobs,these jobs supports more people and the country prosperous .
But how these people are encouraging inflation ?Well when I was a kid,for me a perfect way to enjoy was to be at park playing cricket with my friends.But for todays kids,it about play station,theme parks,a 3D movie at a multiplex and a trip to pizza hut.My cricket costed my parents around 2000 bucks spread over 10 years.All I needed was a bat,ball and six stumps.But nowadays a week end costs over Rs.2000.Initially a budget of 2500 was enough for my mom to run the house and today the total budget allocated to my mom is around 10K.Then also my mom complains how difficult its to run the house.
What the hell has happened to us.Why can't we just be satisfied with what ever we have?Well the answer to it is,we have become globalised.We want nothing but the very best for us.Its no more aloo paratha at breakfast but its cornflakes,its no more Bata sandal but a Nike shoe,its no more CRT TV but an LCD or plasma for us.We want more and more and more and think that getting the best for us is our birth right.There is nothing wrong in asking for the best,but have we thought what it is doing to the world.
Indian economy is growing at 8% per annum and china is at 11%,we together hv 35% of world population.Now imagine the fact that 35% of world population is wanting more and more from the world,the axis of demand is shifting from West towards the East.We want wheat,we want Rice,we want Steel,we want energy and we want OIL.
I once read an economist saying China and India are like a champagne bottle which is being shaken for past 2oo years and now they are bursting out.But are we bursting out the right way?Are we not destroying the world instead changing it for good.We are the worst culprit of environmental damage.NTPC is third largest contributor of CO2 in the world,China has destroyed forest area equivalent to the size of Sri lanka to prepare for Olympics.For common wealth games in 2010 and Olympics in 2008,India and China will need steel that would be enough to make a four lane road to the moon.At current rate we would require 250 billion barrels a year by 2030.We want more and better and for that we are ready to pay any price,be it economical or human.

The great press in India often forgets to bring important news to the focus,its not until you look into a TIME magazine or Economist,you realize the tensions between India and China over Africa's resources.Many countries in Africa are under civil wars,initially these were started by USA and USSR.But now the backing power is India and China.Both of them want maximum control on the resource rich Africa.And yes don't forget,USA is also there.They are even ready to sacrifice human lives for it.Millions have lost their lives in Uganda and Congo,because the nations like USA,China and India wants their control over it,whether directly or indirectly.All this because we, sitting at our homes want the very best for ourselves.

So next time when you hear or read that inflation number on a Friday afternoon do think of the Hawk,the Tiger and the Dragon.

8 comments:

arjay said...

this is one of the best and most touching article i have read. rich wid numbers and still bearing a humane touch
nitiksh u rock man

Prakash said...

Money has been increasingly becoming synonymous with Nitiksh ... i wonder if its an after-effect of studying in a financially over-rated college !

Somjeet said...

well i can say that this wont change me but i will help others to change for me....i wud like to be one of those careless IT engineers

Gaurav said...

yar..hats off..!!!!such thought provoking article...written n explained in such a clear manner..

Nitiksh Srivastava said...

At somjeet,this article was never meant to change u..it was an analysis on my part on global inflation

Sir Charlemagne said...

Well when I started I got a distinct feel of a B-school lecture....then I thought where else can I get a better one...so continued...but what started off as number crunchers.....soon turned into an interesting piece.!

If only the proffs could be inspired by you!!!

chao.

QuizMasterManasNayak said...

superb article.the other day,you answered my questions in my blog.Your answer was correct also.

Suman said...

Already known facts put in a very straightforward and emotional way. Nicely arranged and comprehensive. Very gripping indeed.
Hope to get some more brilliant articles from you...