No for the simple reason that such extrapolations and corollaries would confuse an already confused world. Logical, yes, because China is pricking India. Not just in Arunachal Pradesh , but elsewhere too. It is known to be stoking Maoist uprisings in Nepal--our neighbor. It is known to have supplied nuclear technology to Pakistan--our neighbor. It is supportive of the military Junta in Myanmar - our neighbor. It has close defence ties with Bangladesh, our neighbor. It is encircling India with a new sphere of influence. Why? Simple, the world is like its people. Countries are like people--groups of people, masses of people. Alone, a person would rule the world. Bring in two, and egos would begin to clash. Have three and politics will begin with one allying with the other of the remaining two. This is how humans behave and countries do. No one knows the future, yet everyone tries to control it. China is trying to control a future it knows will be an intensely competitive one. It will be competing against India for almost everything that matters. And it is trying to find friends and allies. And it is also trying to find issues and foes.
I don't want to sound nightmarish, but this is a blog and so I can say it. I believe that within our lifetimes we will see immense disturbance in the world we live in. Immense turmoil and upheaval, and all of it human engineered.
India is a rising power, but so is China. India is a democracy, China is a communist command economy with broad sweeps of capitalism washing over it creating a measure of discord amongst its people. China is progressing fast, India is progressing just a wee bit slower. But India is a free nation for its citizens. It is a democracy. China apparently is, but really is not. It is not a democracy. China has its problems of disparate growth with wealth concentrated in its eastern sea board. India has 1.2 billion people. China has 1.4 billion. Both nations are consuming ever increasing food, meat, energy and information. Already, everywhere in the world, there is competition between India and China for resources as both find themselves bidding for the same items on the world's markets. As both become prosperous, the pressures and demands will only increase. Today the one that has more money calls the shots. Tomorrow when both have loads of it and when mere money will not seem to matter, the games will begin. What we are seeing today is a mere prelude to it all. The same oil fields, the same mines, the same corporates, the same banks and both India and China out with their wallets.
And I shudder to think, that we think we have evolved and become more civilized. It was but 65 years back when the Second World War was raging and millions were dying brutal deaths in war and concentration camps. 65 years is not too long back and too little a time span to have changed fundamental human nature. We want things. We are materialistic. When we don't get things we tend to fight and when stakes are high we tend to kill. We are like that. Dangerous animals. Don't misunderstand forks and knives on well laid out tables with black liveried waiters for civilization. Perhaps we also like to masquerade.
So what am I trying to say here? Just that behind a complex interplay of politics lie simple fights for resources. Power is tempting because it provides access to resources, whatever they may be.
When China fumes over Dalai Lama's visit to Arunachal Pradesh, it is simply flexing muscles and asserting claims over resources if not indicating that it is capable of being a nuisance. But perhaps this time China has overplayed its cards. Tired of being quiet and hoping China will glower, hiss and then go away, India has realized that China will never let up. How can it? It needs to gobble up more and more of the worlds resources to keep itself going and growing. And so does India. For the first time the Tibet card is turning out to be hugely important. There are 1.2 lakh Tibetans in India, and the younger generation wants freedom. It wants China out of Tibet. Totally and completely. Tibet is the biggest buffer India could hope for between China and itself. Today China stands on India's borders using the Tibetan plateau. But Tibet even today is restive. It is not China. And as Tenzin Tsundue, the Tibetan writer and activist in Dharamshala who climbs hotel walls and displays Tibetan flags to ruffle Chinese visitors says, India has nurtured many Tibetans like him who have not seen Tibet ever, yet are aggressive supporters of complete freedom and willing to fight and die for their homeland. The Dalai Lamas presence at Tawang in Arunachal will be the best symbolism for India's territorial integrity. China will look on impotently as the Dalai Lama prays at the monastery that had welcomed him when he trekked into India in 1959.
President Obama has designated a special envoy to interface with the Dalai Lama. Why? Because he is important. Why? Because he exerts influence over Tibetans. So? He can swing the direction in which the Tibetan protest winds blow for China. So? He can be an important influence in keeping China in check. So? China can be prevented from focusing on destabilizing other countries, because it will need to fear its own destabilization. So? Americans will find a balance of powers developing and keeping each other busy, in this case India and China. So? America continues to exert influence over both as they balance each other. And influence gets you money. And resources. See, we come back to the same thing...resources?
The Tibetan movement is focused and clear. The Muslim-dominated Uighur movement is still nebulous and disparate. China also wants to use the present situation to create an Indian bogey. When internal unrest threatens to loom, create the bogey of an external threat to unite its own people. Taiwan is too small a threat, Japan is farther away, with Russia there are no serious issues, India is the best bet to project as a threat. So claims over Arunachal, India's protests, China's counter protests, the Dalai Lama somewhere in between - part of the great game. After all we are humans. Lets not forget that.
So what will happen? Obviously, I don't know! But what I do know is--the games have begun. The world will compete and then fight. Again. I don't think we can wish it away. What do you think?